Effective transition rate

Definition

Number of new entrants to the first grade of the higher level of education in the following year expressed as a percentage of the students enrolled in the last grade of the given level of education in the given year who do not repeat that grade the following year.

Data source

School register, school survey or census.

Calculation method

The number of new entrants to the first grade of the higher level of education (h+1) for the following year (t+1) is divided by the number of students enrolled in the last grade of primary education in the given year (t) minus the number of repeaters from the last grade of primary education in the following year (t+1) and multiplied by 100.

Data required

Enrolment and repeaters in the final grade of a given cycle or level of education (for year t and t+1 respectively) and new entrants (or enrolment and repeaters) in the first grade of the higher cycle or level of education for year t+1.

Interpretation

Low values of the effective transition rate indicate a low share of students continuing their education at the next level of education, for example due to a high drop-out rate from the last grade of a given level of education or due to limited intake capacity of the next level of education. The effective transition rate can highlight the existence of potential barriers in an education system (i.e. relative selectivity). These barriers can be based on a combination of many factors including financial requirements (such as enrolment fees, the obligation to purchase textbooks or school uniforms, etc.) or supply issues (such as limited numbers of teachers or classrooms).

Limitations

This indicator does not consider migration flows. It can also be distorted by incorrect distinction between new entrants and repeaters. Additionally, the effective transition rate assesses only the transition from the last grade of a given education level to the first grade of the following level and does not take into account the characteristics of the entire given level of education.

Purpose

To show the real transition from one cycle or level of education to a higher one regardless of repetition. This indicator better reflects situations in which pupils repeat the last grade of the given education level but eventually make the transition to the higher level.

Quality standards

The effective transition rate should be based on reliable data on new entrants (or on enrolment and repeaters), especially in the first grade of the higher cycle or level of education. It is generally affected by the inconsistencies between data by grade (enrolment and repeaters) of two consecutive years.

Types of disaggregation

By sex and level of education.