Expected gross primary graduation ratio

Definition

Total number of new entrants to the first grade of primary in a given year, regardless of age, who are expected to graduate from the last grade of primary education, regardless of repetition, expressed as a percentage of the population at the official graduation age from primary education in the same year.

Data source

Number of graduates in the last grade of primary education for year t; enrolment by grade for two consecutive years (years t-1 and t); number of repeaters by grade for year t; population of the official primary school-entrance age for year t.

Calculation method

Multiply the expected gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary education by the probability of graduation at the last grade of primary. This indicator is calculated on the basis of the reconstructed cohort method.

Data required

Number of graduates in the last grade of primary education for year t; enrolment by grade for two consecutive years (years t-1 and t); number of repeaters by grade for year t; population of the official primary school-entrance age for year t.

Interpretation

A high ratio indicates a high degree of future primary education outputs.

Limitations

Given that this indicator is estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions (i.e. the observed flow rates will remain unchanged throughout the cohort life), care should be taken in using the results for cross-country comparisons. In some counties, the results of graduation might be driven by the availability of places in secondary education.

Purpose

To estimate the future outputs of primary education based on current new entrants to the first grade of primary education assuming current grade transition and repetition rates as well as last grade graduation probability remain unchanged. It therefore predicts the effect on last grade graduation of current education policies on entrance to primary education and future years of schooling.

Quality standards

Since the calculation of this indicator is based on pupil-flow rates, its reliability depends on the consistency of data on enrolment and repeaters in term of coverage over time and across grades.

Types of disaggregation

By sex.