Expected gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary education

Definition

Total number of new entrants to the first grade of primary in a given year, regardless of age, who are expected to reach the last grade of primary education, regardless of repetition, expressed as a percentage of the population at the official entrance age to primary education in the same year.

Data source

School register, school survey or census for enrolment and repeaters; population census or estimates.

Calculation method

Multiply the gross intake ratio to the first grade of primary education by the survival rate to the last grade of primary education.

Data required

Enrolment by grade for two consecutive years (years t-1 and t); number of repeaters by grade for year t; population of the official primary school-entrance age for year t.

Interpretation

A high ratio indicates a high degree of future primary education completion.

Limitations

Given that this indicator is estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions (i.e. the observed flow rates will remain unchanged throughout the cohort life), care should be taken in making comparisons.

Purpose

To estimate the future gross intake in the last grade of primary education based on current new entrants to the first grade of primary education assuming current grade transition and repetition rates remain unchanged. It therefore predicts the effect on last grade intake of current education policies on entrance to primary education and future years of schooling.

Quality standards

Since the calculation of this indicator is based on pupil-flow rates, its reliability depends on the consistency of data on enrolment and repeaters in term of coverage over time and across grades.

Types of disaggregation

By sex.