Promotion rate by grade

Definition

Proportion of students from a cohort enrolled in a given grade at a given school year who study in the next grade in the following school year.

Data source

School register, school survey or census for data on enrolment and repeaters by grade.

Calculation method

Divide the number of new enrolment in a given grade in school year t+1 by the number of students from the same cohort enrolled in the preceding grade in the previous school year t.

Data required

Enrolment by grade for school year t and enrolment and number of repeaters by grade for year t+1.

Interpretation

Ideally, the rate should approach 100%; a high rate reflects high internal efficiency of the educational system. When compared across grades, the patterns can indicate specific grades for which there is low promotion.

Limitations

Automatic promotion can in some cases be determined by the educational authorities with the aim of coping with limited grade capacity and increasing the internal efficiency and flow of students. Care should be taken in interpreting this indicator, especially when comparing education systems.

Purpose

To measure the performance of the education system in promoting students from a cohort from grade to grade, and its effect on the internal efficiency of educational systems. It is also a key indicator for analysing and projecting pupil flows from grade to grade within the educational cycle.

Quality standards

Like other student-flow rates (repetition and dropout rates), the promotion rate is derived by analysing data on enrolment and repeaters by grade for two consecutive years. One should therefore ensure that such data are consistent in terms of coverage over time and across grades. These flow-rates can be biased by: over-reporting enrolment/repeaters (particularly in grade one); incorrect distinction between new entrants and repeaters; pupil transfers between schools (at sub-national level).

Types of disaggregation

By grade and by sex.