Effective promotion rate by grade

Definition

Measure the likelihood of a student moving from a given grade to the next grade in a given level of education regardless of repetition. The effective promotion rate for grade Gi and year t is defined as the ratio between promotees from grade Gi to the next grade Gi+1 between school years t and t+1 and the number of students enrolled in grade Gi in a given year who do not repeat that grade the following year.

Calculation method

The number of new entrants to the following grade for the following year (t+1) is divided by the number of students enrolled in the given grade in the given year t minus the number of repeaters from the given grade in the following year (t+1) and multiplied by 100.

Data required

Enrolment and repeaters by grade for years t and t+1 and new entrants (or enrolment and repeaters) by grade for year t+1.

Data source

School register, school survey or census.

Interpretation

A high value of the effective promotion rate indicates a high share of pupils continuing their education at the next grade regardless of how many years they can repeat. In contrast, a low value reflects a high drop-out rate from that grade, which can highlight pedagogical problems or the existence of a selective process dictated by limited capacity of the following grade.

Limitations

The effective promotion rate is affected by transfers, which can generate values higher than its theoretical maximum value (100%). Because the methodology of this indicator assumes that all education conditions remains unchanged over time (the flow indicators are the same), results need to be used with caution. Additionally, because the number of promotees between grades is determined indirectly by subtracting repeaters from enrolment, this indicator can also be distorted by incorrect distinction between new entrants and repeaters.

Purpose

To show the real transition from one grade to the next grade regardless of repetition. This indicator measures the share of pupils enrolled in a given grade who will effectively transit to the next grade without repetition or after repeating the grade one time or more.

Quality standards

The quality of the effective promotion rate depends upon the reliability of data on enrolment and repeaters. It is generally affected by inconsistencies between data by grade (enrolment and repeaters) of two consecutive years.

Types of disaggregation

By sex and level of education.